On November 9, 2021, the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) reported that electricity supplies in New York will likely be sufficient to meet peak demand this winter, with a total of 42,415 MW of power resources available.[1] NYISO forecasts that peak demand for winter 2021-2022 will reach 24,025 MW, about 6.6% higher than last winter. According to the grid operator’s extreme winter weather scenario, peak demand could increase to as much as 26,230 MW. The state’s all-time winter peak was set in January 2014 when a multi-day polar vortex pushed demand to 25,738 MW.

Although the 2014 polar vortex did not cause any reliability issues, NYISO has since made changes to its market designs to provide stronger incentives for generators to secure fuel and increase winter preparedness. The grid operator also took steps to improve situational awareness of natural gas conditions and enhance procedures for monitoring generator fuel inventories. NYISO says these actions have allowed it to meet demand during more recent severe cold weather. For winter 2021-2022, NYISO said that it is monitoring regional fuel supplies as there could be a limited supply. The grid operator also noted that seasonal and weekly fuel surveys indicate oil and dual-fuel generators have sufficient inventories to start the winter but are still lower than in past years.

[1] https://www.nyiso.com/-/press-release-%7C-new-york-s-electric-grid-prepared-to-meet-winter-demand