On May 30, 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's May 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts that natural gas consumption for electricity generation will average 44.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) during the peak summer months of June through August, matching the record set in summer 2023. [1] Despite a 3% increase in overall electricity generation, natural gas consumption is not expected to grow due to increased renewable energy production.
The shift towards more renewables and natural gas, and less coal, continues. Since 2014, natural gas-fired generation has become more competitive with coal, and its capacity has increased by 19%, or 79 gigawatts, with a 60% growth in generation. The efficiency and relatively low prices of combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants have boosted natural gas use.
Simple-cycle gas turbine (SCGT) plants, used more frequently during high-demand summer months, have also seen increased utilization, with capacity factors rising from 8% in 2014 to over 20% in recent summers. The share of summer electricity generation from natural gas grew from 29% in 2014 to 46% in 2023 but is expected to decline slightly to 44% in 2024, as renewable sources, particularly solar, continue to grow.