[USA] Outlook for US natural gas inventories at the end of injection season.

An analysis released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on August 7, 2024, forecasted that US working natural gas inventories will be 3,954 billion cubic feet (Bcf) by the end of October. [1] This is the highest amount of natural gas in US storage since November 2016.  Less-than-average cumulative injections are predicted for the rest of the injection season because inventories were relatively well supplied in March, above-average natural gas consumption was anticipated, and there was relatively flat natural gas production this summer. The difference between US natural gas inventories and their previous five-year average will gradually decrease with the slower rate of inventory build. Injections into storage will be at or near the five-year minimums in every region of the US for the remainder of the season.

Natural gas storage is mainly used to balance seasonal fluctuations in natural gas demand because consumption peaks in the winter when natural gas use for heating is greatest. As natural gas-fired generation capacity has increased due to warm summers, consumption in the electric power sector has risen to meet air-conditioning demand. This leads to a second, smaller peak in the year, typically in July or August. Much of the increased US natural gas demand since 2012 had come from the South, including Texas and Louisiana. The second peak in consumption in the summer occurs in the inventory pattern in the South-Central region as another significant withdrawal period.

[1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62724