In a draft report released on May 6, 2022, by the California Energy Commission (CEC), CEC staff recommend building 3 GW of offshore wind by 2030 and between 10 GW and 15 GW by 2045.[1] Given that the offshore wind industry could see technology developments and subsequent cost declines, the draft report suggests the potential of up to 20 GW between 2045 and 2050. This amount is the largest long-term offshore wind goal, surpassing New York’s 9 GW target for 2035. The draft report stems from the 2021 Assembly Bill 525, which directed the CEC to establish offshore wind planning goals for 2030 and 2045. The legislation also required the agency to develop a strategic plan for offshore wind resources by mid-2023.

The CEC said that it is in the process of identifying suitable sea space in federal waters, which could change the outlined planning goals. The road map also noted that one point of uncertainty is the availability of federal tax credits in the future. Currently, offshore wind projects that start construction before 2025 can receive the 30% investment tax credit (ITC), but after 2025 Congress would need to extend the ITC. According to the draft report, the ITC could bring the cost of projects from the $60-$70 MWh range down to $40-$50 per MWh.

[1] https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/GetDocument.aspx?tn=242970&DocumentContentId=76566