According to the North American Electric Reliability Corp.’s (NERC) 2022 Summer Reliability Assessment, released on May 18, 2022, the central and Western U.S. face an increased risk of energy shortfalls this summer due to predicted extreme heat and drought conditions.[1] The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), the grid operator in the central Midwest, faces the highest risk and could face a resource shortfall during normal conditions due to higher peak demand and declining resource commitments. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the Southwest Power Pool (SPP), the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), and the rest of the Western U.S. are also at elevated risk of outages during above-normal conditions. In Texas, for example, extreme peak demand, low wind, and high rates of outages from thermal generators may require emergency procedures. California and parts of the West are also at risk due to drought and extreme heat.

Aside from extreme heat and drought conditions, grid operators must also contend with cyber threats, a shortage of fuel and non-fuel coal generation inputs, and wildfire. The reliability assessment also highlighted the major risks associated with the unexpected tripping of wind and solar farm power inverters during normal grid disturbances, such as a lightning strike. NERC cited incidents of losses of solar generation between May and August 2021 in California and Texas. NERC is currently developing new rules to address this issue.

[1] https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_SRA_2022.pdf