On January 8, 2024, PJM Interconnection released its long-term load forecast, which laid out its predictions for estimated electricity demand growth.[1] The forecast estimated a 1.7% annual demand growth for summer peaks, 2% for winter peaks, and 2.4% for net energy over a 10-year planning horizon starting in 2024. The 2024 summer peak load is 151,254 MW, increasing to 178,895 MW in 2034 and 193,123 in 2039. Peak winter load is forecasted at 134,663 MW for the 2023–2024 winter, increasing to 164,824 MW in 2034 and 178,241 in 2039. Overall, total annual energy use throughout the PJM footprint is expected to increase nearly 40% by 2039, from 800,000 GWh to about 1.1 million GWh.

According to the long-term forecast, rising energy demand in PJM’s footprint, which includes all or part of 13 states and the District of Columbia, is increasingly driven by the development of data centers throughout the PJM footprint. Further, the acceleration of the accelerating electrification of transportation and industry is a big factor. Currently, PJM has about 500,000 light-duty electric vehicles (EVs) as of 2024, and S&P Global is forecasting about 23 million light-duty EVs by 2039, a growth rate of just under 30% annually during that period. Also, PJM has about 25,000 medium- and heavy-duty EVs as of 2024, and S&P Global is forecasting about 1.45 million medium- and heavy-duty EVs by 2039, 30% annual growth rate.

[1] https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-publishes-2024-long-term-load-forecast/