[USA] PJM forecasts long-term electricity demand growth through 2039

On January 8, 2024, PJM Interconnection released its long-term load forecast, which laid out its predictions for estimated electricity demand growth.[1] The forecast estimated a 1.7% annual demand growth for summer peaks, 2% for winter peaks, and 2.4% for net energy over a 10-year planning horizon starting in 2024. The 2024 summer peak load is 151,254 MW, increasing to 178,895 MW in 2034 and 193,123 in 2039. Peak winter load is forecasted at 134,663 MW for the 2023–2024 winter, increasing to 164,824 MW in 2034 and 178,241 in 2039. Overall, total annual energy use throughout the PJM footprint is expected to increase nearly 40% by 2039, from 800,000 GWh to about 1.1 million GWh.

According to the long-term forecast, rising energy demand in PJM’s footprint, which includes all or part of 13 states and the District of Columbia, is increasingly driven by the development of data centers throughout the PJM footprint. Further, the acceleration of the accelerating electrification of transportation and industry is a big factor. Currently, PJM has about 500,000 light-duty electric vehicles (EVs) as of 2024, and S&P Global is forecasting about 23 million light-duty EVs by 2039, a growth rate of just under 30% annually during that period. Also, PJM has about 25,000 medium- and heavy-duty EVs as of 2024, and S&P Global is forecasting about 1.45 million medium- and heavy-duty EVs by 2039, 30% annual growth rate.

[1] https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-publishes-2024-long-term-load-forecast/

[USA] APS breaks peak demand record seven days straight

On July 20, 2023, during a record heat wave in Arizona, Arizona Public Service (APS) customers set a new record for peak energy use, with customer energy use reaching 8,193 MW.[1] The new record was the most recent in a string of record-setting days. The previous all-time peak was set on July 15, and starting July 14, APS customers recorded the seven highest peak days ever. The previous peak demand record was 7,660 MW, set on July 30, 2020. APS advised customers to conserve energy during peak hours from 4-7 p.m., noting that the peaks reached during the heat wave were between 5 p.m. and 6 p.m.

“Despite historic levels of energy usage, APS and its customers experienced no issues related to power supply; and that does not happen by accident. It takes years of planning, maintaining a diverse energy mix, investing in and strengthening the electric system, and most importantly teams of people who are dedicated to keeping the lights on for customers when they need us most,” APS president Ted Geisler said. The utility invests more than $1.5 billion annually to maintain and upgrade the grid to maintain reliable service. In addition, APS will not disconnect customers for past due residential accounts through mid-October 2023 and will waive late fees during this time period.

[1] https://www.aps.com/en/About/Our-Company/Newsroom/Articles/APS-Powers-Seven-Days-In-Row-Of-Highest-Customer-Electricity-Use-Ever

[USA] ERCOT asks residents to use less energy during heatwave

A high number of outages in Texas combined with potential record electricity usage caused the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) on June 14, 2021, to request that residents reduce electric use during peak hours through June 18, 2021.[1] On June 14, 2021, generator owners reported that about 11,000 MW of generation is on forced outage for repairs. Of that generation, 8,000 MW is thermal energy, and the rest is intermittent resources. Typically, the average for thermal generation outages on hot summer days is about 3,600 MW. Roughly 1,200 MW of power was regained overnight on June 14, 2021, when some repairs were done.[2]

According to ERCOT, the peak load reached a new record. On June 15, 2021, the peak load was 69,943 MW, which exceeds the previous June record of 69,123 MW set on June 27, 2018. ERCOT has requested that residents set their thermostat to 78 degrees or higher. The grid operator has also asked that residents turn off lights and pool pumps and avoid using large appliances like ovens, washing machines, and dryers. In addition, residents have been asked to turn off and unplug all unnecessary devices.

[1] http://www.ercot.com/news/releases/show/233037

[2] http://www.ercot.com/news/releases/show/233159

[USA] Report: Pandemic causes largest plunge in energy consumption in 30 years

According to the ninth edition of the Sustainable Energy in America Factbook, which was released in February 2021 by the Business Council for Sustainable Energy (BCSE) and BloombergNEF, the COVID-19 pandemic caused the largest year-on-year decline in energy consumption in three decades.[1] In 2020, U.S. primary energy consumption dropped 7.8%. Transportation energy demand fell 14.4% due to lower rates of commuting and traveling. Electricity use declined least, falling by 3.8% as decreased commercial and industrial demand was partially offset by increased residential demand. Renewables production rose 11% year-on-year and renewable sources generated a fifth of U.S. power in 2020. The U.S. power grid added 17 GW of wind and 16.5 GW of solar. Coal-fired power generation was 19% of the U.S. power mix, down from 45% a decade ago. The report attributes this change to weak demand and increased competition. Total U.S. emissions fell 9.2% which put 2020 20% below 2005 levels. According to the report, these changes have put the U.S. on a trajectory to meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement. However, the report notes that 2021 emissions will likely rebound with economic recovery.

[1]https://bcse.org/factbook/#:~:text=The%202020%20edition%20of%20the,natural%20gas%20and%20renewable%20energy

[USA] EIA April STEO—Coronavirus to cut coal use, CO2, electricity demand

In April 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Association (EIA) released its April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) which documents the broad impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on the energy sector, including annual plunges in energy-related carbon emissions, electricity demand, and production of U.S. crude oil and natural gas.[1] According to the report, total U.S. power-sector generation will drop 3% in 2020 compared to an increase of 6% in 2019, leading “to an expected decline in fossil-fuel generation, especially at coal-fired power plants;”. U.S. coal production in 2020 will decrease 22% from 2019. The economic slowdown and restrictions on business and travel activity from COVID-19 will also cut energy-related carbon emissions by 7.5% in 2020. However, the agency expects emissions will increase by 3.6% in 2021.

Renewable energy is still expected to be the fastest-growing source of electricity generation and is projected to grow by 11% in 2020, but COVID-19 is "likely to have an impact" on new generating capacity buildouts. The April STEO projects that the energy sector will add more than 19 GW of wind capacity and more than 12 GW of utility-scale solar capacity in 2020. These additions are 5% and 10% lower, respectively, than in previous STEOs from the EIA.

[1] https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf